New research improves the prediction of type 2 diabetes risk

A new study has identified signals in the blood that could help predict the risk of developing type 2 diabetes and improve prevention strategies for the disease.

According to the International Diabetes Federation (IDF), around 589 million adults aged 20 to 79 are living with diabetes worldwide, more than 90% of whom have type 2 diabetes (T2D).

Given the scale of this public health problem, identifying people at greater risk of developing T2D early is essential to strengthen detection and care strategies. A new study led by researchers at Mass General Brigham (MGB) provides evidence in this direction by identifying a pattern of metabolites in the blood that could help estimate the risk of developing the disease more accurately.

T2D is characterised by insulin resistance and high blood glucose levels, as well as metabolic changes that affect different organs and systems. Its development is linked both to individual predisposition and to environmental factors, including diet and lifestyle.

“Interestingly, we found that diet and lifestyle factors may have a greater influence on metabolites linked to type 2 diabetes than on those not associated with the disease”, said Jun Li, lead author of the study and assistant professor of medicine and epidemiologist in the Department of Medicine at Mass General Brigham.

She adds that “this is especially true of obesity, physical activity and the consumption of certain foods and drinks, such as red meat, vegetables, sugar-sweetened beverages and coffee or tea. There is growing evidence that these dietary and lifestyle factors are associated with a higher or lower risk of type 2 diabetes”.

Blood signals identified to improve the prediction of T2D

In the study entitled Circulating metabolites, genetics and lifestyle factors in relation to future risk of type 2 diabetes, researchers from Mass General Brigham and the Albert Einstein College of Medicine identified molecules present in the blood, known as metabolites, that are associated with the future risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D). They also analysed how genetic factors, diet and lifestyle can influence their concentrations.

One of the main findings was the identification of a metabolic signature made up of 44 metabolites that improved the prediction of the risk of developing T2D. The researchers also found genetic links between the metabolites associated with the disease, certain clinical characteristics and different tissues of the body. These results represent an advance in medical innovation, providing new evidence to identify metabolic signals associated with the risk of developing T2D, which could help identify the people most at risk of the disease.

The study builds on previous research, which over recent decades has identified more than 100 metabolites related to the risk of type 2 diabetes. Recent work has also shown that the metabolic profile of the blood can be influenced by genetics, health conditions, diet and lifestyle habits. Against this background, bringing together genetic, metabolic and lifestyle information becomes important to better understand the mechanisms associated with the disease and to move towards precision prevention strategies.

“Our study is the largest and most comprehensive investigation to date of blood metabolic profiles associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes. It integrates genomic, dietary and lifestyle data from a diverse population and lays important foundations for future research”, said Qibin Qi, author of the study and associate director of the Center for Population Cohorts at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine.

The researcher also cautioned that the results require further validation: “While these new findings provide important information, more experimental studies and clinical trials are needed to confirm whether these associations are causal and to clarify how these metabolic pathways contribute to the development of type 2 diabetes”.

A better understanding of the biological pathways involved in a disease can drive the development of new treatments. “Our findings could contribute to the development of precision medicine strategies aimed at preventing type 2 diabetes according to different metabolic pathways”, says Jun Li, professor at Mass General Brigham, an organisation affiliated with one of the leading medical schools in the United States, Harvard Medical School, and whose research programme is one of the largest in the country.

Type 2 diabetes has increased in the Dominican Republic

Between 2000 and 2024, the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in the Dominican Republic rose from 255,000 cases to 1.2 million, with an adjusted prevalence of 17.6% and underdiagnosis of 42.8%, according to the article Overview of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Dominican Republic (2000-2025): a scoping review, published on 30 September this year in the Revista Argentina de Medicina.

Obesity, a sedentary lifestyle, poor diet and high blood pressure are the main risk factors, and the associated cost is estimated at 1.629 billion dollars. Gaps also remain in early detection and access to medicines, and a national digital diabetes registry needs to be created.

As diabetes care often involves treating several other conditions at the same time, Mass General Brigham takes a comprehensive and highly personalised approach to its treatment, using the latest advances and making shared decisions with patients to set goals, therapies and self-management strategies that are realistic and sustainable in the long term.